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Wednesday, Apr 30, 2025

China's Consumer Confidence Boosts Economic Growth Prospects

China's Consumer Confidence Boosts Economic Growth Prospects

Recent surveys indicate rising consumer sentiment and retail growth amidst government efforts to stimulate domestic demand.
In a significant development for the Chinese economy, a recent survey conducted by Deutsche Bank has revealed a notable improvement in consumer sentiment among Chinese households.

This positive trend emerges as China prioritizes the expansion of domestic demand to meet its GDP growth target of approximately 5 percent for 2025, despite encountering various challenges.

According to the survey, 54 percent of respondents reported feeling better off financially compared to the previous year, marking an increase from an average of 44 percent recorded in 2024. This shift suggests that China's initiatives aimed at bolstering household confidence and consumption are beginning to yield tangible benefits.

Supporting this finding, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the consumer confidence index for February experienced a rise of 0.9 percentage points from January, indicating a consistent upward trend over the past three months.

The latest data reflects a series of encouraging indicators regarding consumer behavior.

For the first two months of 2025, retail sales in China reached 8.37 trillion yuan (approximately $1.16 trillion), representing a year-on-year increase of 4 percent.

This figure serves as a critical gauge of the nation's consumption strength and highlights the positive impact of pro-growth policies recently enacted by the government.

Developments within the retail sector illustrate a significant evolution in consumer purchasing patterns, with online retail sales alone surging to 2.28 trillion yuan during the same period, up 7.3 percent from the previous year.

Incentives such as trade-in programs for consumer goods have stimulated demand, particularly in categories including communication devices, cultural and office supplies, and home appliances.

These trends underscore the emergence of new growth sectors within the Chinese consumer market.

China’s commitment to enhancing domestic demand is further evidenced by a comprehensive plan announced by the General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the State Council, aimed at stimulating consumer spending and increasing household purchasing power.

This plan includes initiatives to raise earnings and lessen financial burdens on consumers.

While there are multiple positive indicators suggesting a rebound in Chinese consumption, some skepticism persists in Western media about the durability of this recovery.

Concerns regarding the real estate sector continue to present challenges, as household consumption expectations may be influenced by fluctuations in housing prices.

Nevertheless, economists indicate that the ongoing revitalization of the real estate market, which began showing signs of recovery in the fourth quarter of 2024, is expected to foster greater market confidence moving forward.

During a press briefing, NBS spokesperson Fu Linghui emphasized the immense market potential within China, citing a population of over 1.4 billion and a per capita GDP exceeding $13,000.

The expansion of new consumption types, particularly in green technologies and digital services, including eldercare and childcare, is anticipated to act as a significant catalyst for consumption growth in the coming years.

Furthermore, the survey results from Deutsche Bank also noted a rising percentage of Chinese consumers anticipating an increase in their income for 2025, now at 60 percent, further illustrating the optimistic prospects for consumption in the nation.

As the country navigates its economic challenges, the burgeoning optimism surrounding consumer spending stands as a crucial element for sustaining growth.

In another report indicating a positive start to 2025, the NBS highlighted significant growth in key economic indicators, including industrial production, consumer spending, and investments, exceeding the growth rates observed throughout 2024. Government support, aimed at stimulating domestic demand, has emphasized the central role of consumer vitality in China's economic agenda.

From January to February, retail sales of consumer goods experienced a year-on-year growth of 4 percent, driven by increased holiday spending and proactive government policies.

Additionally, fixed-asset investments increased by 4.1 percent in the same period, reflecting governmental emphasis on infrastructure and manufacturing upgrades.

The production of new energy vehicles saw substantial gains, with an increase of 47.7 percent year-on-year, complemented by advancements in solar and wind energy production, which rose by 10.4 percent and 27.4 percent, respectively.

The rise of artificial intelligence and smart manufacturing technologies has also strengthened the industrial backbone of the economy, as substantial growth is reported in sectors relying on digital innovations.

As demand for investment persists in critical areas such as new urbanization, carbon reduction, and public welfare services, the outcomes of these policy-driven initiatives signal a resilient economic framework.

These economic trends are mirrored in China's robust e-commerce sector, which recorded considerable growth during the first two months of 2025. Official reports highlighted a 5 percent year-on-year increase in online retail sales of physical goods, surpassing the overall retail sales growth.

Policy incentives have played a pivotal role in fostering this sector, resulting in strong performance in online tourist services and international goods.

China's economic model is increasingly focused on self-sustainability, driven by domestic consumption, as the government continues to introduce measures aimed at stabilizing and invigorating household confidence amid external economic pressures.

By embracing its dual circulation strategy, China underscores its commitment to bolstering the internal market alongside selective international engagement.
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